Just for the fans

De La Hoya vs Pacquiao: Prediction – Why De La Hoya Will Beat Pacquiao

Posted by beeshabo on December 3, 2008


Oscar De La Hoya is one of the most recognizable faces in boxing, and in the history of the sport for that matter, he has the star power that every fighters craves, he undoubtedly has the skills of a great fighter, and built his career on fighting the best out there, and doing what he is supposed to do, which is beat the man in front of him. De La Hoya had great success early in his career, he was a big man to deal with in the lower weight divisions, he had size, power and above all, he had tremendous speed, with that, he was able to carry himself to a record of 31 wins, 0 losses, and 23 of those wins coming by way of knockout, he was the real deal. His first “Event” fight (besides the Chavez fights) fight took place on September 18th 1999, when he faced Puerto Rican knockout artist, Felix “Tito” Trinidad in one of the biggest Welterweight fight’s of all time, both undefeated, both very skilled, and both were extremely popular amongst their people, but only one can remain undefeated.

In that fight, Oscar De La Hoya was performing magic, he was completely out-boxing the Puerto Rican Star, beating him to the punch, and busting him up, but Trinidad would continue marching forward, not fazed by the Golden Boy’s early success, Trinidad, still on his toes, still punching back, but by the half way mark, he was clearly behind. By round 8, De La Hoya looked tired, completely drained by the boxing display and outstanding performance he was putting forth, and Tito began to come on strong, but Oscar was comfortable ahead in the fight, or so we thought. In rounds 11 and 12, De La Hoya jumped on his bicycle and started circling without punching, believing he was comfortably ahead, he was just trying to coast through the last two rounds, but as he did so, it allowed Trinidad to land some shots he may not have been able to had De La Hoya not decided to take the rounds off. In the end, Trinidad was awarded the extremely controversial decision win, and De La Hoya’s undefeated record died that night, and so did his drive to win the big fights.

Since that loss, De La Hoya has failed to win any of his big fights, except for his fight with Fernando Vargas, in which De La Hoya used his speed and boxing ability to pick apart the ferocious Vargas to stop him in the 11th round of a great fight, but still, that fight was more of a personal ordeal than a professional conquest, I am mainly referring to the big the fights, the money fights, the fights in where he was matched with someone equally as skilled or powerful.

Let’s list them, shall we.

Oscar De La Hoya vs Sugar Shane Mosley

June 17, 2000WBC & IBF Welterweight Titles
Mosley win by Split Decision

-Mosley was undefeated, and arguably in his prime, it was the best fight that could have been made in the 147lb division (at that time), and Oscar jumped at the challenge, but fell short in one of the best boxer/puncher matched I have ever seen.

Oscar De La Hoya vs Sugar Shane Mosley II

September 13, 2003WBA, WBA & IBA Light Middleweight Titles
Mosley win by Unanimous Decision

-Attempting to avenge his loss, Oscar took another crack at Mosley, but this time at 154lbs, although Oscar came up short, he still put forth an extreme effort, and most believe he won.

Oscar De La Hoya vs Bernard Hopkins

September 18, 2004WBA, WBC, IBF & WBO Middleweight Titles
Hopkins win via 9th round KO

-Even with Hopkins being the much bigger man, De La Hoya proved his guts and took on the reigning 160lb champion, De La Hoya may have been knocked out (by a phantom punch, yes, I said it), but he still proved he wanted to take on the best.

Oscar De La Hoya vs Floyd Mayweather Jr.

May 5, 2007WBC Light Middleweight Title
Mayweather win via Split Decision.

-Floyd Mayweather was the #1 Pound-4-Pound fighter on the planet, undefeated, in his prime, fast, strong and extremely gifted, De La Hoya once again, elected to face the best, but once again, fell short of winning a big one.

Four major bouts, and De La Hoya fell short in every single one, Why? You may ask, well it’s simple, he lacked superiority against each opponent, they were just as good, if not better. But the fact that he was constantly put in the ring with men who were at the peak of their careers says a lot about De La Hoya, he never backed out of a fight, he indeed fought the best in his era, there were also fights in which many believe he won. Win or lose the big fights, there is no doubt in my mind that those fight made Oscar the fighter he will be remembered for being, they tought him how to fight the best, accept defeat, and embrace victory.

Now, on to this Saturday’s fight, Oscar De La Hoya vs Manny Pacquiao, “The Dream Match”

Okay, I’m constantly browsing the Internet and reading up on my boxing, daily, and after indulging in great articles written by some very experienced boxing analysts, I go on to read the comments posted on the article, some are very honest in their opinions, some know nothing, and others come off as smart alecks and know it alls. Well one thing is certain, no one will know the outcome of any fight until the fight is over, it’s not right to assume you know the outcome, but you’re to state your opinion and possibly back up your prediction with good facts. Sometimes you’re right, and sometimes you’re wrong, that’s just the way it is.

I for one, think that De La Hoya will not only beat Manny Pacquiao, but he will knock him out somewhere between rounds 8 and 9, and here is why.

Manny Pacquiao is a very good fighter, he has tremendous speed, agility and power, and has grown into a near complete fighter, at age 29, Manny Pacquiao is in his physical prime, beating every man who stands in his way, his only loss in the last 12 years was to Mexican legend, Erik Morales, but Pacquiao then went on to avenge that loss in impressive fashion, twice. Since his first fight with Morales, Manny Pacquiao has remained on the winning end of every fight, but I think his time is up, he’s fighting not only a much bigger man, but a more experienced man, a stronger man, and maybe even a man who’s carries the same amount of speed. Oscar has more advantages (in my eyes) than most would care to point out, De La Hoya is bigger, much bigger, and I think the fact that he’s coming down in weight will increase not only his power, but his speed, less weight to carry in throwing his combinations, plenty would argue that Welterweight is De La Hoya’s more natural weight, he did okay at 154, but failed to impress at 160, 147 is where he should be. Fighting at 147 is something De La Hoya hasn’t done since he fought Arturo Gatti in 2001, but still, there shouldn’t be much of a problem for De La Hoya coming back down, his last fight was in May of this year when he defeated Stevie Forbes at a catch weight of 150 lbs, this fight will take place 3 lbs south, which isn’t very much, this just might be the right weight, at the right time in his storied career. Another major factor in this fight is Manny coming up in weight, again, many will disagree, but Pacquiao will be fighting 12 lbs heavier than in his last fight, where he fought at 135 brutally knocked out David Diaz, but that was also his first time campaigning at 135 lbs, having won his most significant fights at 126 and 130 lbs. Not sure how much (if any) speed Pacquiao will lost in this bout, he seemed to still be very fast at 135 lbs, and his punches had a bit more snap and power behind them, but will an extra 12 lbs be too much to carry into a fight with a man of De La Hoya’s size?

I think so, Manny Pacquiao had almost more than he can handle in defeating Juan Manuel Marquez in both of their epic battles, both fights were scored very close and could have gone either way, most would also like to grant Marquez victory in the second fight, claiming he landed more of the clean effective punches, I would be quick to agree. The main reason Manny struggled with Marquez was because Marquez is an excellent boxer with good power in both hands, he’s a technical fighter who uses lateral movement, a very assertive jab, and works off it to throw and land crisp combinations, something Oscar has perfected throughout his boxing career. If Manny struggled with a fighter like Marquez, how can he expect to handle a fighter who possess the same skills, but is naturally bigger and stronger?

He simply can’t, De La Hoya will fight tall, he will not give up his height, he will use his jab, which I think will be the key weapon in this fight, Freddie Roach (Manny’s trainer) admits that his only concern is in fact De La Hoya’s jab, it is strong and possess a major threat to anyone on the receiving end. In order for Pacquiao to have success in this fight, he must close the distance, which will be an amazing feat, because he’s giving up not only 4” in height, but a whopping 6” in reach, which is a major, major factor, he will have tremendous difficulty getting close if De La Hoya sticks to his jab. I expect an over hand right and left hook to follow the jab of Oscar, but Manny is very quick on his feet, he will move as much as possible, and keep up the pace to test De La Hoya’s conditioning, which has haunted many times before.

I see a very energetic Pacquiao in the first few rounds, he will come in and show Oscar that this is indeed a fight, he will not wait to see what De La Hoya will do, but Oscar, on the other hand will be a bit more plodding as he finds his target with a razor sharp jab and right hand, all meant to disrupt Manny’s explosive style that comes at you from a southpaw stance. Manny Pacquiao is typically head hunter, he greatly believes in his power, only he knows that in this fight, a one punch KO is not in the cards, but a steady body attack that can take De La Hoya’s legs if the fight goes beyond 6 rounds, only problem there is when in fact Manny throws to the body, he will have to bend in, and that will only give De La Hoya more chances to land. But if in fact Manny can get his rhythm and make De La Hoya fight 3 minutes of every round, he can find himself on the winning end of a close decision win, but, if Pac-Man allows Oscar to set the pace and keep him at bay, it’s over. The most admirable thing about the Filipino star, is his style, he comes to fight, he comes to win and he loves fighting toe to toe, now who doesn’t like a fighter like that, no one, but I think his style, is perfectly suited for Oscar De La Hoya.

In the end, I see Oscar sending Manny to the canvas, and for the first time in 9 years, Manny will not beat the 10 count, not sure in which form the KO will come, either from a body shot, or a head shot, but Manny Pacquiao will be knocked out on December 6th, inside 9 rounds.

I must say this, as always, this is boxing, anything can happen, I stand behind my prediction, and will admit when I’m wrong……stay tuned!!!


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